3. Wise thinking vs. Unwise thinking
Be careful when trying to become a great person too quickly.
Out of ten people who make such efforts,
only one can succeed:
there is a huge difference.- BENJAMIN DISRAELIN
The words that experienced entrepreneurs talk about
the most are “proper industriousness”.
This takes time,
to get the critical information you need to make informed decisions.
The biggest mistake we make is wasting our time,
and energy without fully completing our “homework”.
The best decisions we make are almost
always based on being fully aware of the problem before acting.
We must “think carefully before acting”.
Reasons for success in business
In business, according to Forbes magazine,
the top reason for failure is that no one wants
to use the product or service.
Whatever it is,
the customer either doesn’t need it
or doesn’t need it at the cost the company has to pay to stay in business.
In 2013, in the US alone,
more than $8 billion was spent on market research.
This money is to research what customers really want
before the product is manufactured
and launched on the market.
But despite thorough research,
80% of new products eventually fail
and have to disappear from the market.
According to McKinsey & Company,
a leading management consulting firm,
the primary reason for business success is high sales.
The main reason for business failure is low sales.
Everything else is just commentary.
The main reason for bad decisions leading
to market failure is that the leaders do not ask the right questions
or do not have the necessary information
before the product is manufactured and sold.
Harold Geneen, founder of a group of more than 150 companies at IT&T,
once said, “The most important factor in business is data.
Take facts that are real,
not obvious facts
or expected facts.
Get real facts. Facts don’t lie.”
Today, one of the most important words in business is “authentic”.
Never admit it.
When you have a great idea,
immediately take action to validate it,
gather evidence that
it is really as good as you think it is.
Think on the page.
Make a list of all the information you have about the product
or service and all the information you will need to make the right decision.
Let’s talk to others.
Seek advice and data from people who have been in your situation.
Hire an expert.
Someone who specializes in a particular area can save you time and money.
Do a search on Google.
Type in keywords related to your question,
and see what pops up.
Usually someone has done this already.
Thanks to everyone in the industry,
who might be knowledgeable on the subject,
to share their candid opinions and thoughts.
One thought or comment can change your situation completely.
Using the scientific method
Use the scientific method.
Create a hypothesis
– an unproven theory.
Then find a way to eliminate this hypothesis,
to prove that your idea is wrong.
This is what scientists still do.
This is exactly the opposite of what most people usually do.
They come up with an idea,
then look for evidence that proves their idea is right.
They suffer from “confirmation bias”.
They only find the basis for their ideas,
and at the same time reject all facts
or information that do not match
what they have already decided to believe.
Make a negative or inverse hypothesis.
This hypothesis is the opposite of your original hypothesis.
For example, you are Isaac Newton,
and the idea of gravity just popped into your head.
Your initial hypothesis would be
“everything falls to the ground”.
Then you try to prove the opposite –
“everything falls upwards”.
If you cannot prove the conjecture
or the negative of the idea,
you can conclude that your hypothesis is correct.
For example, you come up with an idea for a product/service.
You then attempt to demonstrate that there is no demand
for this product/
service at a particular price point.
You approach a potential customer
and describe your product/service and say,
“Of course, this isn’t what you want,
or you’re willing to pay for, right?”
If your client agrees that he doesn’t want what you’re offering,
you have valuable information to guide your decision-making.
Conversely, if the customer opposes your negative hypothesis by saying,
“No, no, no.
This is actually something that I would buy
and use if you put it on the market”,
so you have confirmed your initial hypothesis about potential demand
for this new product/service.
Ready to stumble
Be prepared to try and fail,
propose and be rejected,
over and over again
from time to time.
and error are essential to your ultimate success.
Be your own management consultant
before any of your ideas and conclusions.
Ask yourself the devastating questions a consultant would ask
to help guide your decision-making process.
“Is there a market demand for this new product/service?”
“How great is the demand,
and at what price point?”
“What can you change in the original idea
to make the product/service attractive enough
that people will want to buy it in sufficient quantity?”
“Is the demand for this new product strong enough
to justify this product development over others?”
“Is the market for this product idea concentrated enough
that you can reach potential customers
with existing sales and marketing channels?”
“Will customers pay for this product/service enough to allow you
to earn a greater profit than another product/service?”
Don’t relax yourself
or ask yourself gentle questions.
As Zig Ziglar once said,
“If you are strict with yourself,
life will be easy for you.
Be steadfast on the path of understanding.
But if you go easy on yourself,
life will be very hard on you.”
It’s better to be wise
As psychologist Jerry Jampolsky once wrote,
“Do you want to be wise
or do you want to be happy?”
It’s amazing how many people come up with an idea
for a new product/service
and then revel in the idea long before validating
whether it’s something that enough customers are willing to pay for.
Keep gathering information
until the right course of action becomes clear,
as it will eventually.
Double-check your data.
Don’t base anything on beliefs.
Ask, “How do we know this is true?”
Finally, look for a potential defect,
a weakness in a decision that,
if it happens,
could be fatal to the product
or to the business. J. Paul Getty,
once the richest man in the world,
was famous for the way he made business decisions.
“We initially thought it was a good business opportunity,” he said.
Then we asked,
“What’s the worst that could happen
to us with this business opportunity?’
Then we set out to make sure that the worst doesn’t happen.
If you can gather all the information you need,
and you can neutralize
or eliminate the potential defect,
you will make better decisions than others.
There is no substitute for experience
The experienced versus immature mindset can be very valuable.
Nothing can replace experience in a rapidly changing industry
Many invaluable lessons can be learned
from trial and error,
by going through countless experiences
and making countless mistakes in a particular area.
Experienced people develop the so-called “trend identification”.
When faced with a new
or existing situation in business,
they can recognize trends they have seen before,
trends that lead to success or failure.
They can immediately predict
what may happen,
leading to a business investment decision or not.
They can quickly spot holes in arguments in favor of new ideas.
Thanks to the trends they have seen in the past,
they can quickly focus on the key factors
that can lead to success or failure.
Become a master in the game
In a study of players ranging
from domestic chess champions to world grandmasters,
researchers suggested that the difference in success was the ability
to predict potential moves that
The opponent can go in a certain game of chess.
They then discovered that chess players,
at all levels,
rarely think more than the next three or four moves.
Thinking beyond that doesn’t help them win.
Instead, they found that at each level,
players noticed more trends than players at lower levels,
which can only be gained from experience.
Grandmasters can glance at the board
and almost immediately see about 50,000 possible moves.
He can accurately guess
which pieces his opponent can take based on the current situation
of the pieces on the board.
Therefore, a chess champion can beat 10, 20,
even 30 opponents at the same time.
He can go from board to board,
and move pieces.
Then go to the next table.
The experience is worth discussing
The same is true in business and other professions.
Thanks to extensive experience,
which cannot be obtained quickly or easily,
an expert can quickly assess a complex situation
and immediately suggest a solution
that is normally not possible
for a less experienced person. know.
The directors of Fortune 500 companies earn more
than $10 million per year on average.
They have this only
because of their ability to react
and respond quickly
shine in complex situations,
like they’ve seen
and done in the past,
and make quick
and accurate decisions that lead to financial results,
sometimes in the millions or billions of dollars.
Rule number one
Perhaps the most popular advice
from the rich is “Don’t lose money”.
In business and everyday life,
your aim is definitely not to lose money.
In war, often the generals
who make the fewest mistakes win the battle.
In life, often the people
who make the fewest financial mistakes lead their company
or unit to the highest profits.
You achieve this by taking the time to fully equip yourself with knowledge
before making the irrevocable decision in the first place.
The more information you gather
before making a decision,
the more likely you are to make informed decisions
that lead to the success you desire.
Strategy of the rich
Bernard Baruch, one of America’s richest self-made people,
wrote in his book My Own Story
that the biggest financial mistake he ever made was
that he wasn’t diligent enough
before investing money.
Warren Buffett, the second-richest self-made billionaire in the world today,
spends 80% of his day reading
and arming himself with details that can influence his investment decisions.
He never stopped learning and gathering information.
Carlos Slim, the richest man in the world a few years ago,
his house in Mexico City was filled with newspapers
from Mexico and around the world.
He constantly reads from all possible sources
to get the information he needs
to help him make the right business decisions.
Never stop collecting information
Your aim should be to try to be smarter than anyone else in your life
and in the businesses that matter most to you.
You do this by constantly gathering information
and comparing different ideas with others.
You hold skepticism
and move slowly toward your decision.
The more information and experience you gather,
the better decisions you make
and the better the results you achieve.
1. Choose an area of your work
or life where you need
to make decisions that involve time,
money, and long-term consequences.
Determined to figure out every aspect of the decision before acting.
Do not accept anything based on beliefs.
2. Ask others.
Find a few people who may have been in the same situation
or problem as you,
and ask for their advice.
3. Look for fatal flaws in the area
where you need to decide whether to move forward or not.
Always think that there is a defect that exists.